How does the distance between teams affect the outcome?

November 19, 2024

In summary, as the distance between soccer teams increases, the likelihood of a home team victory and a draw both rise, while the probability of an away team victory decreases.

Distance chart for home, draw and away results
Distance (km)MatchesHomeDrawAway
1-5066800.43670.24970.3136
51-150188490.42900.25810.3129
151-250159790.43160.26670.3018
251-350132950.44480.26760.2876
351-45076960.44430.27230.2834
451-55061520.45170.26980.2784
551-75066600.44320.27850.2782
751-115043280.45080.27450.2747
1151-250016620.46630.28640.2473

How Does Distance Affect Goal Counts?

As the distance between teams increases, the total number of goals scored in a match decreases. The graph below clearly illustrates how the probability of fewer than 2.5 goals being scored rises with greater distances.

Distance chart for under 2.5 and over 2.5
Distance (km)MatchesUnder 2.5Over 2.5Home goalsAway goalsTotal goals
1-5066800.48460.51541.5071.2132.721
51-150188490.48670.51331.4961.232.727
151-250159790.49580.50421.491.1982.688
251-350132950.50230.49771.51.1582.658
351-45076960.50810.49191.4811.1352.615
451-55061520.50860.49141.5031.1472.65
551-75066600.52340.47661.4581.1192.577
751-115043280.52570.47441.4651.1182.583
1151-250016620.58180.41821.4090.9852.394

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